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The Foresight Guide

The Foresight Guide

Plan 2

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Plan 2

Posted August 23, 2014

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John Smart

Foresight University (4U) is a professional learning and development company, run by academically-trained foresight practitioners, entrepreneurs, technologists, and creatives. We offer high-quality training in personal, organizational, global, societal and universal (“full spectrum”) foresight and leadership, we help leaders and entrepreneurs maximize their positive career impact, and we support the growing professional foresight community.

© 2019 4U | Mailing address: 1345 King George Blvd, Ann Arbor, MI 48108 | contact@foresightguide.com
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Table of Contents

Overview

Preface
Testimonials
Acknowledgments
How to Read The Foresight Guide

Chapter 1. Introduction – Our Emerging Foresight Field

Chapter 1: Introduction

Our Emerging Foresight Field

I. Introduction

What is Foresight?
Why Think About The Future?
Two Questions and Four Goals of Foresight
What is the Foresight Field?
Futurists and Foresighters
Foresight Professional: A Simple Definition
Four Domains of Adaptive Foresight
Six Ps of Strategic Foresight
Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight: The Do Loop
Twenty Specialty Practices
The 80/20 and 95/5 Rules
History Matters! Historical Foresight Analysis
Foresight Matters! Progress Opportunities Lost
A Vision of Foresight Culture

II. Key Personal Practice Challenges

1. Being Explicit, Quantitative and Scientific
2. Valuing Probabilistic Foresight
3. Seeing Hard and Soft Trends
4. Making Critical Judgments
5. Telling the Four Story Genres
6. Creating Good Progress Stories
7. Balancing Optimism, Pessimism and Realism
8. Building Strong Relationships

III. The State of the Field

Foresight’s Great Myth
Foresight’s Open Secret
Do Loop: The Eight Skills of Practice
Proof Points: The Four Foresight Skills
How Large is Our Community?
What Do We Call Ourselves?
Foresight Training Options
Foresight Certifications
Foresight Courses
Primary Foresight Associations
Foresight Networks and Jobs

IV. A Brief History and Future

Six Eras of Foresight Practice
Our New Plutocracy
Digital Pathways Out
A Foresight Renaissance Ahead

V. What Will Your Contribution Be?

Chapter 2. Personal Foresight – Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 2: Personal Foresight

Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

I. Introduction to Personal Foresight

The Right Fights: The Ladder of Self-Leadership
Knowing Yourself: The Deepest Journey
Five Mindsets of Personal Foresight
Our Life Priorities: The HRVWE Success Codes
Health – Vital Cycles: Cyclic Habits for Vitality
Relationships – Attributes of Happiness
Vision – Five Goals and Ten Values
Work – Four Steps and Eight Skills
Environment – Mental and Physical Priorities
Daily Mantras – Affirmations, Priorities, Values
Emotion, Cognition, and Action: A Primal Do Loop
Intelligence – Five Basic Types
Emotional & Social Intell. – Primal Challenges
Cognitive, Tech & Envir Intell. – New Challenges
Emotional-Cognitive Biases – Seeing and Fixing
Emotional-Cognit. Diversity – A Key to Excellence
Emotional-Cognit. Behav. Therapy & Self-Therapy
Passion vs. Mastery – Competing Career Drivers
Practice and Expertise – 10,000 Hours and More

II. Trait and Strength Assessments

Hedgehogs and Foxes – Two Personality Types
Big Five Personality Traits
A Sixth Trait – Social Dominance
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator
Gallup’s StrengthsFinder
Core Leadership Skills and Traits
Gallup’s Four Leadership Domains
Adaptive Self-Leadership – Key Skills and Values
Self-Leadership Traps – The Eight Skills

III. Evo Devo Psychology

Three Universal Cognitive Styles

1. The Anticipator (Forecaster-Protector)
2. The Creative (Experimenter-Innovator)
3. The Manager (Strategist-Planner)

Universal Values Types and Sets

IV. Habits and Tools

The Power of Habits
Achievmnt Groups: Juntos, Masterminds, Fusions
Task Management and Journaling: Your Actualizer
Career Planning: Where Will You Go Next?

Chapter 3. Career Options – Great Ways to Be a Foresight Leader

Chapter 3: Career Options

Great Ways to Be a Foresight Leader

I. Foresight and Leadership

Your Foresight Brand

II. Top Roles for Foresight Leaders

1. Consultant
2. Academic
3. Creative
4. Entrepreneur
5. Organizational Foresighter

III. Industry Practice Options

Twenty-Six Industry Groups
Four Classic Economic Sectors

1. For-Profits
2. Government
3. Education
4. Nonprofits

The FEMMIT Complex: Why Finance, Energy, Medicine, Military & IT Industries are Influence Leaders

IV. Departmental Practice Options

1. Top Management
2. Metrics & Planning
3. Security & Risk Mgmt
4. Human Resources
5. Operations
6. Sourcing
7. Information Technology
8. Research & Development
9. Sales
10. Marketing
11. Customer Service
12. Community Relations

Chapter 4. Models – Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 4: Models

Foundations for Organizational Foresight

I. Systems, Models and Frameworks

Statistical Surveys and Consulting

II. Category Models

1. Evolution and Development
2. Toffler’s Three Foresight Skills
3. Gallup’s Leadership Domains
4. Spreckley’s Triple Bottom Line
5. Wilber’s Integral Quadrants
6. Humphrey’s SWOT Quadrants
7. Gartner’s Market Quadrants
8. Porter’s Five Forces

III. Decision Cycle Models

1. Delphi Opinion Cycle
2. Eltville’s Five Foresight Perspectives
3. APF-Houston’s Six Strategic Foresight Activities
4. 4U’s Eight Skills of Foresight Practice
5. Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change Management
6. Shewhart’s Learning and Deming’s Quality Cycle
7. Simon’s Design Thinking Cycle
8. Boyd’s Competitive Dominance Cycle
9. Beck’s Agile Devel. & Ries’s Lean Startup Cycle
10. Learn-See-Do-Review Cycle (The Do Loop)

IV. Change Curves and Other Cycle Models

1. Dator’s Four Futures
2. Logistic Growth (S-curves)
3. Exponential Growth (E-curves)
4. Superexponential Growth (J-curves)
5. Power Law Growth (L-curves)
6. Kuznets Cycles (U-curves)
7. Life Cycles (B-curves and C-curves)
8. Hype Cycles (Growth curves with hype)
9. Economic Cycles (Boom-Bust Pendulum)
10. Inequality Cycles (Plutoc.-Democ. Pendulum)
11. Indiv, Organizatnl & Social Values (Life Cycles)
12. Generational and Social Values (Irreg. Cycles)

V. Practice Frameworks

1. Mahaffie’s Foresight Initiation Framework
2. 4U’s Eight Skills Foresight Practice Framework
3. Horizon Scanning Framewrks (PEST to STEEPS)
4. Houston’s Foresight Research Framework
5. Foltigo’s Future Value Generation Framework

Chapter 5. The Do Loop – The Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight

Chapter 5: The Do Loop:

The Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight

I. 4U’s Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight

Skill 1. Learning – Your History and Status
Skill 2. Anticipation – Probability Foresight
Skill 3. Innovation – Possibility Foresight
Skill 4. Strategy – Preference Foresight
Skill 5. Execution – Getting Somewhere
Skill 6. Influence – Recruiting Others
Skill 7. Relating – Sustaining Your Team
Skill 8. Reviewing – Staying On Target

II. Introduction to Adaptive Leadership

Chapter 6. Methods and Frameworks – Building Adaptive Foresight Skills

Chapter 6: Methods and Frameworks

Building Adaptive Foresight Skills

I. Methods of Adaptive Foresight

Set 1. Learning Methods
Set 2. Anticipation Methods
Set 3. Innovation Methods
Set 4. Strategy Methods
Set 5. Execution Methods
Set 6. Influence Methods
Set 7. Relating Methods
Set 8. Reviewing Methods

II. Specialty Focus – Investing as Foresight Practice

III. Method Focus – Learning via Reading

IV. Foresight Practice Frameworks

1. Mahaffie’s Foresight Initiation Framework
2. Horizon Scanning Framewrks (PEST to STEEPS)
3. Houston’s Foresight Research Framework
4. Foltigo’s Future Value Generation Framework

V. Further Reading in Foresight Methods

Chapter 7. Acceleration – Guiding Our Extraordinary Future

Chapter 7: Acceleration

Guiding Our Extraordinary Future (In Process)

I. Three Views of Change

VUCA: A Defensive View of Change
CIBA: An Opportunistic View of Change
I4S: An Evo Devo View of Change

II. Global Progress: 5 Goals, 10 Values, Many Trends

Innovation: Our Abundant Future
Intelligence: Our Augmented Future
Interdependence: Our Civil Future
Immunity: Our Protected Future
Sustainability: Our Rebalanced Future

III. Universal Accelerating Change

Great Race to Inner Space: Our Surprising Future
Entropy&Information: We’re Running Down & Up
The Puzzle of Meaning: We Have No Einstein Yet
Trees, Funnels & Landscapes: Intro to Evo Devo
Big Picture Change: Five Scales of Accelerating ED
Transcension Hypothesis: Where Acceleratn Ends?
IDABDAK: Social Response to Accel & Developmnt
We’re On a Runaway Train: Being Accelaware

IV. Evo Devo and Exponential Foresight

Seeing It All: Accel., Diverg, Adapt, Convrg, Decel.
Natural (I4S) Innovation: The Evolutionary Drive
Natural (I4S) Intelligence: The Human-AI Partnership
Natural (I4S) Morality: Why Empathy and Ethics Rule
Natural (I4S) Security: Strength from Disruption
Natural (I4S) Sustainability: The Developmental Drive
S-Curves: Managing the Four Constituencies
Pain to Gain: Traversing the Three Kuznets Phases
Hype to Reality: Beyond Hype Cycles to Reality Checks
Exponentials Database: Measuring Accelerations
TINA Trends: Societal Evolutionary Development
Managing Change: STEEPCOP Events, Probs, Ideas
A Great Shift: A Survival to a Sentient Economy

V. Evo Devo and Exponential Activism

Building Protopias: Five Goals of Social Progress
Normative Foresight: Ten Values of Society
Top & STEEPCOP Acceleratns: Positive & Negative
Dystopias, Risks, and Failure States
Three Levels of Activism: People, Tech & Universe
A Great Opportunity: Exponential Empowerment

Chapter 8. Your Digital Self – The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

Chapter 8: Your Digital Self

The Human Face of the Coming Singularity (In Process)

I. Your Personal AI (PAI): Your Digital Self

Digital Society: Data, Mediation, and Agents
Personal AIs: Advancing the Five Goals
PAI Innovation: Abundance and Diversity
PAI Intelligence: Bio-Inspired AI
PAI Morality: Selection and Groupnets
PAI Security: Safe Learning Agents
PAI Sustainability: Science and Balance
The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

II. PAI Protopias & Dystopias in 8 Domains

1. Personal Agents : News, Ent., Education
2. Social Agents : Relat. and Social Justice
3. Political Agents : Activism & Represent.
4. Economic Agents : Retail, Finance, Entrep
5. Builder Agents : Work, Innov. & Science
6. Environ. Agents : Pop. and Sustainability
7. Health Agents : Health, Wellness, Death
8. Security Agents : Def., Crime, Corrections

III. PAI Activism & Exponential Empowerment

Next Government: PAIs, Groupnets, Democ.
Next Economy: Creat. Destr. & Basic Income
Next Society: PAI Ent., Mortality & Uploading
What Will Your PAI Contribution Be?

Chapter 9. Trends and Progress – Leading Positive Change

Chapter 9: Trends and Progress

Leading Positive Change

I. 4U’s Futurepedia: Envisioning Social Progress

II. Sci and Tech (S&T) Foresight: Trends & Progress Visions

1. Information Sci and Technologies Overview
2. Nano Sci and Technologies Overview
3. Resource Sci and Technologies Overview
4. Engineering Sci and Technologies Overview
5. Cognitive Sci and Technologies Overview
6. Social Sci and Technologies Overview
7. Health Sci and Technologies Overview
8. Economic Sci and Technologies Overview
9. Political Sci and Technologies Overview
10. Security Sci and Technologies Overview

III. Societal (EEPS) Foresight: Trends & Progress Visions

1. Sociocultural Foresight Overview

Cultures of China and the USA: Implications for Global Leadership

IV. Progress Hindsight Collection: Major Foresight Lost

A. Global
200 BCE: A Printing Press in Ancient Greece
50 CE: A Steam Engine in Ancient Rome
1000 CE: A Norse Democracy in America

B. United States
1896: Neoslavery Defeated (Reconstruction II)
1912: A Saved Titanic (Collaborative Foresight)
1938: A Ludlow Amendment (War Referendum)
1953: No US Coup in Iran – We Ally Instead
1955: Substantially Safer Cars
1965: A Defended South Vietnam (Vietnam War)
1970: A Fully-Realized EPCOT
1991: An Accountability Doctrine (Gulf War)
1993: Tablets and eBooks at the Birth of the Web
2000: Accelerated American Broadband
2007: An Autonomy Doctrine (Iraq War)

Chapter 10. Startup Ideas – Great Product & Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs

Chapter 10: Startup Ideas

Great Product and Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs (In Process)

I. 4U’s Idea Hub: Building Better Futures

Air Deliveries and Air Taxis: Finally Solving Urban Gridlock
Ballistic Shields and Gun Control: Protecting Us All from Lone Shooters
Bioinspiration Wiki: Biomimetics and Bio-Inspired Design
Brain Preservation Services: Memory and Mortality Redefined
Carcams: Document Thieves, Bad Driving, and Bad Behavior
Competition in Govt Services: Less Corruption, More Innovation
Computer Adaptive Education (CAE): Better Learning and Training
Conversational Deep Learning Devsuites: Millions of AI Coders
Digital Tables: Telepresence, Games, Entertainment & Education
Dynaships: Sustainable Low-Speed Cargo Shipping
Electromagnetic Suspension: Nausea-Free Working & Reading in Cars
Epigenetic Health Tests: Cellular Aging, Bad Diet, Body Abuse Feedback
Fireline Explosives and Ember Drones: Next-Gen Fire Control
Global English: Empowering the Next Generation of Global Youth
Greenbots: Drone Seeders and Robotic Waterers for Mass Regreening
High-Density Housing and Zoning: Making Our Cities Affordable Again
Highway Enclosures and Trail Networks: Green and Quiet Urban Space
Inflatable Packaging: Faster and Greener Shipping and Returns
Internet of Families: Connecting People Over Things
Kidcams: Next-Gen Security for Child Safety and Empowerment
Kidpods: Indoor & Outdoor Parent-Assistive Toyboxes
Microdesalination: Democratizing Sustainable Fresh Water Production
Noise Monitors: Documenting and Reducing Noise Pollution
Oceanside Baths: Sustainable Year Round Beach Enjoyment
Open Blood Scanners: DIY Citizen Health Care Sensor Tech
Open Streaming Radio: User-Centered Audio Creation and Rating
Open Streaming Video: User-Centered Video Creation and Rating
Open Values Filters: Social Rankers, Arg. Mappers, and Consensus Finders
Personal AIs: Your Private Advisor, Activist, and Interface to the World
Pet Empowerment: Next-Gen Rights and Abilities for Our Domestic Animals
Safe Closets: Fire-, Earthquake-, and Intruder-Proof Retreat Spaces
Safe Cars: Reducing Our Insane 1.3M Annual Auto Deaths Today
Safe Motorcycles: Lane Splitting in Gridlock Without Risk of Death
Shared Value Insurance: User-Centered Risk Reduction Services
Sleeperbuses and Microhotels: Demonetized Intercity Travel
Space-Based Solar Power: Stratellite Powering and Weather Management
Stratellites: Next-Gen Urban Broadband, Transparency, and Security
Touch DNA: Next-Gen Home Security and Crime Deterrence
View Towers: Improving Urban Walkability, Inspiration, and Community

Chapter 11. Evo Devo Foresight – Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Chapter 11: Evo Devo Foresight

Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

I. Universal Evo Devo: A Model

What is Evolutionary Development?
The VCRIS Model of Natural Selection
Two Fundamental Tensions
Three Universal Processes
Four Systems of Change
Five Hierarchies of Complex Systems
Five Goals of Complex Systems
Six Schools of Social Foresight
Ten Values of Social Progress
The 95/5 Rule: Most Change Looks Evolutionary
Catalytic Catastrophes: Advancing the Five Goals
Universal Devel.: A Hidden Actor in Social Change
Portals (Funnels) and Convergent Evolution
Incompleteness: The Limits of Science & Mind
Adjacent Possible: Steam Engines to Neural Nets
Grand Questions: Purpose & Place in the Universe
Extraordinary Claims
Dangers of the Model
Benefits of the Model
Testing the Model

II. Evo Devo (Empowerment) Foresight

Seeing Both Evolution and Development
Why & What vs. How, Who, Where & When

1. Evolutionary Factors

A. Stories, Causes, and Assumptions
B. Imagin., Combinatorls, Emerg. & Divergnces
C. Uncertnties, Unkns, Opps, Wildcards & Risks

2. Developmental Factors

A. Associatns, Trends, Dependncs & Constraints
B. Cycles, Curves, Models, and Laws
C. Convergences, Optima, and Predictions

Four Domains of Empowerment Foresight
Practicing Empowerment Foresight with Clients

III. Evo Devo (Empowerment) Activism

Emp. Society: Growing the 5 Goals & 10 Values
Emp. Politics: Left Wing, Right Wing & Up Wing
Emp. Policy: S&T, IT, & Collective Intelligence
Emp. Catalysts: 10K Folks & 10K Hrs to Next
What Will Your Empowerment Contribution Be?

Chapter 12. Visions and Challenges – Priorities for Professionals

Chapter 12: Visions and Challenges

Priorities for Professionals

I. Big Foresight: Visions of Emerging Practice

Acceleration and Evo Devo Aware
Evidence-Based and Scientific
Digital
Data-Rich
Probabilistic
Collaborative
Open
Global
Popular

II. Key Community Practice Challenges

Seeing Acceleration and Development
Building Better Models and Definitions
Grounding and Validating Our Scholarship
Professionalizing and Continuing Our Training
Collaborating on Digital Foresight Platforms
Marketing Our Ever-Growing Value to Clients

III. Common Practice Biases and Mistakes

Bias Against Personal Foresight
Bias Against Probable Foresight
Extremism Bias
Hype Bias
Drama Bias
Clear View Bias
Elitism Bias
Monotrend Extrapolation Errors (MEEs)
Underspecified Model Mistakes (UMMs)

IV. Problematic Social Roles

Clairvoyant Futurist
Soothsaying Futurist
Prosperity Futurist
Dogmatic Futurist
Utopian Futurist
Dystopian Futurist
Postmodernist Futurist
Scriptural Futurist

V. Reaching for Better Foresight with Our Clients

Responsible Spiritual Foresight
Life is Amazing; Spread the Word!

Appendix 1. Peer Advice – Building a Successful Foresight Practice

Appendix 1: Peer Advice

Building a Successful Foresight Practice

I. Introduction to Peer Advice

Survey Topics and Questions

II. Five Practitioner Groups

1. Consultants Advice
2. Academics Advice
3. Creatives Advice
4. Entrepreneurs Advice
5. Organizational Foresighters Advice

III. Takeaway: It’s Your Future

Appendix 2. Leaders – Exemplary Foresight Practitioners and Organizations

Appendix 2: Leaders

Exemplary Foresight Practitioners and Organizations

I. 700 Foresight Leaders – One-Line Database

A-B Leaders

C-D Leaders

E-G Leaders

H-J Leaders

K-L Leaders

M-O Leaders

P-R Leaders

S-T Leaders

U-Z Leaders

Futurist Blogs and Speakers
The Future of Leader Lists
Twitter as a Foresight Community

II. 500 Leading Foresight Organizations – Global List

Large Companies – Foresight Leaders
Mid-Sized Companies – Foresight Leaders
Management Consultancies – Implicit Leaders
Larger Primary Foresight Consultancies
Smaller Primary Foresight Consultancies
University Research Centers & Consultancies
Foresight Specialty & Industry Membership Orgs
Foresight Education Universities & Organizations
International, Governmental & Defense Agencies
Government and Defense Contractors
Industry, Policy & Public Interest Lobbying Orgs
Internships that Can Involve Foresight
Online Employment Communities and Platforms

Appendix 3. Resources – Media and Tools for Better Futures

Appendix 3: Resources

Media and Tools for Better Futures

I. Great Foresight Media

Authorial Bias—Mine and Others’
Top Foresight Books
Professional Foresight Books
Global Foresight Books
Global Foresight Reports
Strategic Foresight Journals
Strategic Foresight Magazines
Foresight Audio and Podcasts
Foresight Videos

II. Other Foresight Resources

Career Resources
Serious Games
Online Platforms
Foresight Glossary