II. Technology Foresight: Ten Areas of Tech Change
Let us now attempt a brief, executive-summary level overview of ten areas of technological change, looking out over a three to twenty year foresight horizon for leaders and entrepreneurs. All ten of these categories are strategically important to our accelerating future. I don’t think we can think well about any one of these areas, such as the future of security technologies, without also thinking carefully about the way change and constancy in the other nine areas will influence the future of that area in coming years.
I’ve tried to address some of the evolutionary opportunities and developmental constraints that will simultaneously exist in each category. I have also roughly ranked each of these categories from easiest to hardest to think about from a developmental perspective. As our society is presently biased against both seeing and accepting developmental trends and destinies, as we described in Chapter 3, many readers may find the arguments in the earlier areas more easily acceptable than the arguments in later areas. In the books section at the end of each overview, consider following the links to “look inside” recommended books on Amazon, or on Google Scholar. Each area ends with a few foresight and leadership questions for readers to consider.
I’ve tried to state my biases and assumptions when relevant. You may have different biases and assumptions. This overview is guaranteed incomplete and wrong in many parts, but I hope it sparks useful discussion for students and leaders. Eventually, we’ll get these on a crowd-editable platform, per the Futureworthy project vision. Have disagreements or questions? Let me know in the comments or in private email, thanks.