Chapter 10. Methods - Building Adaptive Foresight Skills

2. Anticipation (Convergent thinking)

Key Adaptive Foresight Specialty Functions and Practice Communities

Other Anticipation-Associated Organizational Functions

Models, Prediction, Predictive Analytics, Prediction Markets, Collective Forecasting and Prediction Platforms, Budgeting, Asset Management, Insurance, Compliance, Intellectual Property, Health Care

Anticipation-Associated Practitioner Methods

Actuarial Science
Risk data collection, reference class formation, and other methods of quantitative risk assessment.

Analytical Hierarchy Process
Use of hierarchical mapping and pairwise comparison for quant. decision-making, modeling, forecasting.

Bias Identification and Bias Mitigation
Finding cultural biases & cognitive biases in foresight environment, and exercises to mitigate bias.

Causal Modeling, Systems Analysis, and Simulation
Representing system actors and behaviors in causal or computer models (Example: agent models)

Delphi
Classic method to seek convergence from groups via successive opinion and feedback cycles.

Developmental Foresight
Anticipating optimal, convergent, irreversible trends and emergences, at multiple systems levels.

Discontinuity and Wildcard Anticipation
Finding key trend reversals/discontinuities and low probability, high impact (positive or negative) events.

Evolutionary Foresight
Identifying processes of creative, divergent, unpredictable change, at multiple systems levels.

Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis
Predictive evaluation relative to the null hypothesis, to see if team’s forecast truly beats a naive model.

Foresight Workshops
Facilitative and normative methods used in groups to generate desirable future states for the firm.

Genius Forecasting (Genius Visioning)
Gifted and respected experts are asked for predictions or aspirational visions, often outside their fields.

Intellectual Property Strategy
Defensive or offensive techniques to create or protect a firm’s intellectual property.

Learning Curves
Modeling exponential, power-law, S-curve, U-curve & experience curves, while seeking discontinuities.

Prediction Analysis
Examining past predictions and assessing their methods, bias, accuracy, and utility (benefit to cost).

Predictive Analytics
Techniques from statistics, modeling, data mining, and machine learning to make quant. predictions.

Prediction Markets and Prediction Platforms
Markets and platforms for making predictions and finding the best predictors by subject area.

Psychological Trait Assessment (Personality Typing)
Diagnostic models for future-predictable psych. traits (OCEAN, StrengthsFinder, MBTI, DISC, etc.).

Reference Class Forecasting
Quantitative method of predicting the future by comparing to similar past outcomes (a reference class).

Retrodiction
Predicting a past event with your forecasting model, then seeking evidence for it. Good validation tool.

Resiliency Analysis and Resilient Control Systems
Infrastructure, policies and strategies to make a system resilient to damage. See Antifragile, Taleb, 2014

Risk Avoidance, Risk Reduction and Risk Insurance Analysis
Risk prioritization, risk avoidance, reduction, and acceptance/insurance options and plans.

Risk Models and Risk Prediction
Building statistical models of risk occurrence, making them causally predictive.

Statistical Models
Probabilistic relationships between variables in math models, e.g. Demographic & Econometric models.

Trend Extrapolation and Regression Analysis
Acquisition and projection of historical time-series data as a forecast, subject to error and uncertainty.

Vulnerability Assessment
Qualitative risk assessment regarding potential accidents, crime, lawsuits, other adverse events.

Wargaming
Strategy games that deal with threat and security operations of various types, real or fictional.

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