2. Anticipation (Convergent thinking)
Key Adaptive Foresight Specialty Functions and Practice Communities
- Forecasting – International Institute of Forecasters (IIF). Since 1981. Advancing forecasting, short and long-term, quantitative and judgmental, as a multidisciplinary field of research and practice. Annual Internat’l Symposium on Forecasting, training Workshops. Publishes Foresight: The Journal of Applied Forecasting and Internat’l Journal of Forecasting.
- Investing – CFA Institute. Since 1946. Global association of 110K investment professionals. Offers Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and other certifications. Conferences, webinars, and events. Financial Analysts Journal, CFA Institute Magazine. Alternative: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). 150K members. AAII Journal, Conference.
- Risk Management – Risk Management Society (RIMS). Since 2000. Global leader in risk mgmt. practices (insurance, finance, accounting, legal, IT, HR, etc). Annual RIMS Conference and Enterprise Risk Mgmt. Conf. Global Chapters. Risk Management
- Law & Security – American Bar Association (ABA). Since 1878. For lawyers & non-lawyers. Improving legal profession, advancing the rule of law. 400K members. Advocacy groups. ABA Journal, >100 specialty periodicals, many specialty law conferences.
Other Anticipation-Associated Organizational Functions
Models, Prediction, Predictive Analytics, Prediction Markets, Collective Forecasting and Prediction Platforms, Budgeting, Asset Management, Insurance, Compliance, Intellectual Property, Health Care
Anticipation-Associated Practitioner Methods
Risk data collection, reference class formation, and other methods of quantitative risk assessment.
Classic method to seek convergence from groups via successive opinion and feedback cycles.
Anticipating optimal, convergent, irreversible trends and emergences, at multiple systems levels.
Discontinuity and Wildcard Anticipation
Finding key trend reversals/discontinuities and low probability, high impact (positive or negative) events.
Identifying processes of creative, divergent, unpredictable change, at multiple systems levels.
Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis
Predictive evaluation relative to the null hypothesis, to see if team’s forecast truly beats a naive model.
Facilitative and normative methods used in groups to generate desirable future states for the firm.
Genius Forecasting (Genius Visioning)
Gifted and respected experts are asked for predictions or aspirational visions, often outside their fields.
Intellectual Property Strategy
Defensive or offensive techniques to create or protect a firm’s intellectual property.
Examining past predictions and assessing their methods, bias, accuracy, and utility (benefit to cost).
Prediction Markets and Prediction Platforms
Markets and platforms for making predictions and finding the best predictors by subject area.
Predicting a past event with your forecasting model, then seeking evidence for it. Good validation tool.
Qualitative risk assessment regarding potential accidents, crime, lawsuits, other adverse events.
Strategy games that deal with threat and security operations of various types, real or fictional.