Chapter 14. Resources - Media and Tools for Better Futures

Professional Foresight Books – A Longer List 

  1. 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, Hugh Courtney (2001)
  2. A Brief History of the Future, Oona Strathern (2007)
  3. A Field Guide to Lies (and Statistics), Daniel Levitin (2016)
  4. Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World, John Kotter (2014)
  5. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein (1998)
  6. Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, Nicholas Taleb (2014)
  7. Best Laid Plans: The Tyranny of Unintended Consequences, William A. Sherden (2011)
  8. Billion Dollar Lessons: What to Learn from Biz Failures of Last 25 Years, Paul Carroll (2009)
  9. Big Bang Disruption, Downes and Nunes (2014)
  10. Blue Ocean Strategy, Kim and Mauborgne (2015)
  11. Collaborative Intelligence: Thinking With People Who Think Differently, Markova & McArthur (2015)
  12. Competing for the Future, Hamel and Prahalad (1996)
  13. Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell (2011)
  14. Cool Tools: A Catalog of Possibilities, Kevin Kelly (2013)
  15. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for Future Orientation, Rene Rohrbeck (2010)
  16. Cycles: The Science of Prediction, Dewey and Dakin (1947/2011)
  17. Data Points: Visualization that Means Something, Nathan Yau (2013)
  18. Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers (2003)
  19. Digital Disruption: Unleashing the Next Wave of Innovation, James McQuivey (2013)
  20. Edge Strategy, Lewis and McKone (2016)
  21. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip Tetlock (2006)
  22. European Foresight Monitoring Network – Final Report (PDF), Maurits Butter et al. (2009)
  23. Exponential Organizations, Salim Ismail (2014)
  24. Fast Innovation, Michael George et. al. (2005)
  25. Fast Strategy, Doz and Kohonen (2008)
  26. Flash Foresight, Daniel Burrus (2011)
  27. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life & Markets, Nicholas Taleb (2005)
  28. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners, William Ascher (1979)
  29. Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Ed., Alan Porter et al. (2011)
  30. Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future, Elina Hiltunen (2013)
  31. Foundations of Futures Studies, Vols 1-2, Wendell Bell (2010)
  32. Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight, Adam Gordon (2008)
  33. FutureThink, Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown (2005)
  34. Futures Research Methodology 3.0, Jerry Glenn and Ted Gordon, The Millennium Project (2009)
  35. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, Ed Cornish (2005)
  36. Global Foresight Outlook, Rafael Popper et al., European Foresight Monitoring Network (2007)
  37. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Irving Janis (1982)
  38. Handbook of Futures Research, Jib Fowles, Ed. (1978)
  39. Hindsight: The Promise and Peril of Looking Backward, Mark Freeman (2009)
  40. How to Lie with Statistics, Darell Huff (1993)
  41. How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Douglas Hubbard (2014)
  42. Innovation Judo: Disarming Roadblocks and Blockheads on the Path to Creativity, Neal Thornberry (2014)
  43. Innovation Tournaments: Creating and Selecting Exceptional Opportunities, Terwiesch and Ulrich (2009)
  44. Insight in Innovation: Managing by Understanding the Laws of Innovation, Jan Verloop (2004)
  45. It’s Your Future… Make it a Good One, Verne Wheelwright (2012)
  46. Jump the Curve, Jack Uldrich (2008)
  47. Jumping the Curve, Imparato and Harari (1996)
  48. Jumping the S-Curve, Nunes and Breene (2011)
  49. Keeping Abreast of Sci & Tech: Technical Intelligence for Business, Ashton & Klavans (1997)
  50. Knowing our Future: The Startling Case for Futurology, Michael Lee (2012)
  51. Leading Change, John Kotter (2012)
  52. Leading Digital: Turning Technology into Business Transformation, Westerman and Bonnet (2014)
  53. Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, Fahey & Randall, Eds (1998)
  54. Learning from the Octopus: How Nature Can Help Us Fight Terror, Diasters, Disease, Rafe Sagarin (2012)
  55. Long-Range Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong (1985)
  56. Long-Range Planning for Management, 3rd Ed., David Ewing, Ed. (1972)
  57. Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research, Olaf Helmer (1983)
  58. Mastering the Hype Cycle: The Right Innovation at the Right Time, Fenn and Raskino (2008)
  59. Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data, Charles Wheelan (2014)
  60. Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World, Sagarin and Taylor (Eds.) (2008)
  61. OpenIntro Statistics, 2nd Ed, David Diez (2012)
  62. Oracles: How Prediction Markets turn Employees into Visionaries, Donald N. Thompson (2012)
  63. Peripheral Vision: Detecting Weak Signals Critical to Your Company, Day & Schoemaker (2006)
  64. Predictions Ted Modis (1992) and Predictions: Ten Years Later Modis (2002)
  65. Predictive Analytics, Eric Siegel (2013)
  66. Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Ed. (2001) and ForecastingPrinciples.com
  67. Profiting from Uncertainty, Paul Schoemaker (2002)
  68. Psychology, David Myers (2011)
  69. Ready for Anything: Designing Resilience for a Transforming World, Anthony Hodgson (2012)
  70. Rebels at Work: A Handbook for Leading Change from Within, Kelly & Medina (2014)
  71. Scaling Up: Mastering the Rockerfeller Habits 2.0, Verne Harnish (2014)
  72. Scenario Planning in Organizations, Thomas Chermack (2011)
  73. Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future, Woody Wade (2012)
  74. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees van der Heijden (2005)
  75. Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights, Gary Klein (2015)
  76. Servant Leadership, Robert Greenleaf (2002)
  77. Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Royal Dutch Shell Scenarios Group (2005)
  78. Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development, Godet and Durance (2011)
  79. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for Keys to Adaptive Decision Making, Gary Klein (2011)
  80. Strengths-Based Leadership, Tom Rath and Barry Conchie (2009)
  81. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015)
  82. Systems Thinking for Curious Managers, Ackoff and Addison (2010)
  83. Teaching about the Future, Peter Bishop and Andy Hines (2012)
  84. Technology and the Future: Managing Change and Innovation, Peter von Stackelberg (2014)
  85. The 80/20 Manager: The Secret to Working Less and Achieving More, Richard Koch (2013)
  86. The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Achieving More With Less, Richard Koch (1999)
  87. The Art of the Long View: Planning for Future in an Uncertain World, Peter Schwartz (1996)
  88. The Business Forecasting Deal, Michael Gililand (2010)
  89. The Collected What If? Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, Bob Cowley (2006)
  90. The Difference: How Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Societies, Scott Page (2008)
  91. The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience, Wilkinson & Kupers (2014)
  92. The Evolution of Strategic Foresight in Public Policy Making, Tuomo Kuosa (2012)
  93. The Fabulous Future: America and the World in 2040, (Free PDFs) Shapiro and Morson (2015)
  94. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix it, Douglas Hubbard (2009)
  95. The Five Futures Glasses, Pero Micic (2010)
  96. The Fortune Sellers: Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, William Sherden (1999)
  97. The Great Game of Business, Jack Stack (2013)
  98. The Image of the Future, Fred Polak (1973)
  99. The Inevitable: Understanding the Twelve Technological Forces that Will Shape Our Future, Kevin Kelly (2016)
  100. The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen (2011)
  101. The Goal: Ongoing Improvement and the Theory of Constraints, 4th Edition, Eliyahu Goldratt (2014)
  102. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Richard Slaughter (1996)
  103. The Lean Startup: Continuous Innovation for Success, Eric Ries (2011)
  104. The Lords of Strategy: Intellectual History of the New Corporate World, Walter Kiechel (2010)
  105. The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control, Walter Mischel (2015)
  106. The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload, Dan Levitin (2014)
  107. The Pattern of Expectation: 1644-2001, I.F. Clarke (1979)
  108. The Predictioneer’s Game, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (2009)
  109. The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, Paul Halpern (2000)
  110. The Rough Guide to the Future, Jon Turney (2010).
  111. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don’t, Nate Silver (2012)
  112. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Org Learning With Scenarios, Kees van der Heijden (2002)
  113. The Unbounded Mind: Breaking the Chains of Traditional Business Thinking, Ian Mitroff and Harold Linstone (1995)
  114. The Well-Timed Strategy: Mgng the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage, Navarro (2006)
  115. Theory of Constraints, Eliyahu Goldratt (1999)
  116. Think Like a Futurist, Cecily Sommers (2012)
  117. Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Peter Bishop, Andy Hines (2007)
  118. Thinking in Systems, Donella Meadows (2008)
  119. Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011)
  120. Thought and Knowledge: An Introduction to Critical Thinking, 5th Ed., Diane F. Halpern, (2013)
  121. Thrivability: Breaking Through to a World that Works, Jean M. Russell (2013)
  122. UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual, Vol 1 (Methods)  and Vol 2 (Examples), UNIDO (2005)
  123. Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development, Ulf Pillkahn (2008)
  124. Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals, Niall Ferguson (2000)
  125. Visioning, Lucia Capacchione (2000)
  126. Visualize This: Guide to Design, Visualization, and Statistics, Nathan Yau (2011)
  127. Wargaming for Leaders, Herman and Frost (2008)
  128. What Futurists Believe, Coates and Jarratt (1989)
  129. Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, Steven Johnson (2010)
  130. Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us and When Not to Trust Them, David Freedman (2010)
  131. Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future, Peter Thiel (2014)

Personal Foresight — Select List

  1. Awaken the Giant Within, Tony Robbins (1991/2013)
  2. Be Excellent at Anything, Tony Schwartz (2011)
  3. Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth, and Impact the World, Diamandis and Kotler (2015).
  4. Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking When Stakes are High, Kerry Patterson et al. (2011)
  5. Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less, Greg McKeown (2014)
  6. It’s Your Future … Make it a Good One!, Verne Wheelwright (2012)
  7. Living the 80/20 Way, Richard Koch (2004)
  8. Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, Carol Dweck (2007)
  9. So Good They Can’t Ignore You: Why Skills Trump Passion, Cal Newport (2012)
  10. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John Hammond et. al. (2002)
  11. Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Daniel Goleman (2007)
  12. Strengthsfinder 2.0, Tom Rath (2007)
  13. The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg (2014)
  14. The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey (1989/2013)
  15. What the Foresight: Your Personal Futures Explored, Alida Draudt & Julia West (2017)

Historical Foresight Analysis (HFA) — Select Sources of Historical 3Ps Foresight

HFA allows us to correlate past predictions, possibilities, and preferences with past models, assumptions, values, and biases of the foresight practitioner, and their organizations and cultures. A great way to improve our current foresight work.

  1. 2020 Visions: Long View of a Changing World, Carlson & Goldman (1990)
  2. 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology, Coates, Mahaffie & Hines (1996)
  3. Anticipations: Of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought, H.G. Wells (1901)
  4. Eurofutures: The Challenges of Innovation (the FAST Report), Commission of the European Communities (1984)
  5. Looking Ahead Fifty Years, Roger W. Babson (1942)
  6. Looking Backward: 2000-1887, Edward Bellamy (1887)
  7. Memoirs of the Year Two Thousand Five Hundred, Louis-Sebastian Mercier (1772)
  8. Paris in the Twentieth Century, Jules Verne (1863)
  9. Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Royal Dutch Shell Scenarios Team (2005)
  10. The Fabulous Future: America in 2080, John Von Neumann et.al, Fortune Magazine (Eds.) (1955)
  11. The Future of Man, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1959)
  12. The Futurists, Alvin Toffler (Ed.) (1972)
  13. The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty First Century, John Brockman (Ed.) (2002)
  14. The Next Hundred Years: The Unfinished Business of Science, Clifford Furnas (1936)
  15. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, Kahn & Wiener (1968)
  16. Toward Century 21: Technology, Society and Human Values, C.S. Wallia (Ed.) (1970)
  17. Toward the Year 2018: A Dozen Leaders in Science and Tech Look 50 Years Into the Future, Foreign Policy Assn (1968)
  18. What’s Next: Exploring the New Terrain for Business, Kelly, Leyden and GBN Members (2002)

 

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