Chapter 10. Methods - Building Adaptive Foresight Skills

IV. Further Reading in Foresight Methods

We recommend all the sources below for more detail. Some are methods- or domain-specific and some are good sources for collections of methods.

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein (1998)
An Introduction to Technological Forecasting, Joseph P. Martino (1973)
Competing for the Future, Hamel and Prahalad (1996)
Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for Future Orientation, Rene Rohrbeck (2010)
Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers (2003)
Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners, William Ascher (1979)
Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Ed., Alan Porter et al. (2011)
Foresight in Action: Developing Policy-Oriented Scenarios, Marjolein Asselt et al. (2010)
Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change, Bob Seidensticker (2006)
Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight, Adam Gordon (2008)
Futures Research Methodology 3.0, Jerry Glenn, The Millennium Project (2009)
Futures Techniques, Wikipedia (2013)
Handbook of Futures Research, Jib Fowles, Ed. (1978)
Keeping Abreast of Sci & Tech: Technical Intelligence for Business, Ashton and Klavans (1997)
Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, Fahey & Randall, Eds. (1998)
Long-Range Planning for Management, 3rd Ed., David Ewing, Ed. (1972)
Long-Range Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong (1985)
Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research, Olaf Helmer (1983)
Mastering the Hype Cycle: The Right Innovation at the Right Time, Fenn and Raskino (2008)
Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Tech Change, Stephen Schnaars (1989)
Predictive Analytics, Eric Siegel (2013)
Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Ed. (2001) and
Scenario Planning in Organizations, Thomas Chermack (2011)
Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in the Future, Nick Marsh et. al. (2002)
Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, 3rd Ed., Joseph P. Martino (1992)
The Art of Conjecture, Bertrand de Jouvenel, 1967/2012
The Business Forecasting Deal, Michael Gililand (2010)
The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy Making, Tuomo Kuosa (2012)
The Fortune Sellers: Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, William Sherden (1999)
The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Org Learning With Scenarios, Kees van der Heijden (2002)
The Well-Timed Strategy: Managing Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage, Navarro (2006)
Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Andy Hines, Peter Bishop (2006)
UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual, Vol. 1 (Methods) and Vol. 2 (Examples), UNIDO (2005)
Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development, Ulf Pillkahn (2008)
Wargaming for Leaders, Herman and Frost, Booz Allen Hamilton (2008)

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