I. 4U’s Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight
We are now ready to explore Adaptive Foresight, our preferred decision cycle model for strategic foresight practice. The model began with a collaboration between foresight professionals Josh Davis and John Smart in 2014. It has since been further developed by John, with annual feedback from foresight and industry experts.
Adaptive Foresight is the systematic and iterative (repeated, cyclical) practice of the Three Ps foresight skills in a management environment, whether managing oneself, on teams, or in organizations. It involves Four Foresight Steps (Learning, Anticipation, Innovation, and Strategy) and Four Action Steps (Executing, Influencing, Relating, and Reviewing), continually applied to the environment. It is our model for well-managed strategic foresight, successfully executed by the relevant actor (individual, organization, society), and improving the actor’s ability to survive and thrive. In this model, good foresight practitioners must use all Eight Skills of the Do loop to manage any project, product, or service personally, on teams, or in organizations.
Recall that this model is a synthesis of several important management and cognitive science models we’ve seen before:
- The Shewhart-Deming-Simon-Boyd-Beck-Ries Learn-See-Do-Review cycle (Do loop) plus,
- Toffler-Amara’s Three Core Foresight Skills (forming the “See” phase of the Do loop)
- Gallup’s Three Leadership Action Skills (forming the “Do” phase of the Do loop)
The figure below arranges the Eight Skills graphically into the Do loop, and references the authors of the change models mentioned above.
From a cognitive science perspective, the Do loop is a perception decision action (PDA) cycle. These have also been called perception action cycles in cognitive psychology (Roger Sperry) and in ecological psychology (James Gibson). For some of the science of PDA cycles, see Pecher and Zwaan’s Grounding Cognition, 2010.
To understand the Eight Skills in terms of a PDA cycle, we can observe that Learning and Reviewing are primarily environmental perception skills, the three Seeing skills begin as perception but end as mental decision skills, and the Doing skills are action skills.
Because PDA cycles determine how we think, they are are at the heart of foresight, management, and leadership. To a rough approximation, our intelligence, biases, and the learning and reviewing that we do determine what we see. Our values, goals, anticipation, innovation, analysis, and strategy determine our decisions, and our execution, influence and relating determine our actions.
The Adaptive Foresight model helps us practice strategic foresight at five mental levels of practice: triad, loop, skills, functions, and methods.
- The first level of practice involves using the Three Ps in foresight work, beginning with Probable futures, and then exploring Possible futures, before finally turning to Preferable futures.
- The second level of practice requires placing foresight within a learning-foresight-action-feedback cycle, the four-step Do loop.
- The third level of practice requires mentally applying all of the Eight Skills.
- The fourth level involves integrating and balancing the Twenty Specialties in personal, team, and organizational work.
- The fifth level involves using foresight methods to support each skill and specialty, as seems most appropriate. We’ll introduce methods in Chapter 8.
Unlike the Eight Skills, the Twenty Specialties, and the methods in Chapter 8, are not a complete set. Consider them a starter set of useful business skills for integrating foresight into management and leadership that you should modify to best fit your client and context. But they are our best current model for the most useful specialty practices for foresight work in the organization.
Here then are the Twenty Specialties, classified by the Eight Skills.
I. Learning (Hindsight and Insight)
1. Learning – “Knowing Your History and Status” (Investigative thinking) – Three Specialties
Accounting & Intangibles, Intelligence & Knowledge Management, Learning & Development.
II. Seeing (Foresight)
2. Anticipation – “Probability Foresight” (Convergent thinking) – Five Specialties
Data Science & Machine Learning, Forecasting & Prediction, Investing & Finance, Law & Security, Risk Mgmt & Insurance.
3. Innovation – “Possiblity Foresight” (Divergent thinking) – Five Specialties
Alternatives & Scenarios, Entrepreneurship & Intrapreneurship, Facilitation & Gaming, Ideation & Design, Innovation & R&D.
4. Strategy – “Preference Foresight” (Decisive (Re-Convergent) thinking) – Two Specialties
Analysis & Decision Support, Strategy & Planning.
5. Execution – “Getting Somewhere” (Production thinking) – One Specialty
Management & Leadership.
6. Influence – “Recruiting Others” (Market thinking) – One Specialty
Marketing & Sales.
7. Relating – “Sustaining Your Team” (Team thinking) – One Specialty
Human Resources & Performance Management.
IV. Reviewing (Aftsight)
8. Reviewing – “Staying On Target” (Adjustment thinking) – Two Specialties
Auditing & Change Management, Benchmarking & Quality.
Here is 4U’s Adaptive Foresight model in a single graphic:
The Eight Skills are proposed as a minimum viable model for workplace foresight and leadership. One should expect such a skill-centric distribution in any good model of foresight. Again, the Learning skill is foresight preparation, and three Seeing skills are foresight production. Including fewer skill categories than these eight would ignore some key features of the organizational foresight process, and having more categories would be unnecessarily complex.
Notice that the largest set of adaptive foresight specialties, five each, are found in Anticipation and Innovation, the first two of the classic Three Ps foresight functions. The next largest set of specialties, three, is found under Learning, that critical precursor skill to foresight. The third largest group of specialties, two are used in preference foresight, under Strategy. Thus Learning and the Three Ps, as a single group, comprises fully fifteen of the Twenty Specialties of adaptive foresight. Finally, Review, the critical feedback we need from action to institute further Learning and restart the Do loop, gets two specialties as well.
As Boyd would argue, we recommend foresight practitioners focus first on getting the right speed, efficiency, and number of turns in their Do loop for each client problem and for their own self-monitoring. Second, we recommend practitioners focus on growing their understanding and use of each of the Eight Skills, discovering their skill deficiencies, and deciding which specialty strategies and methods can best help them improve each skill.
As we’ll see at the end of this chapter, we can also use the Eight Skills for leadership development, where we call it Adaptive Leadership, and can relate it to a well-known modern leadership model. We will occasionally color “adaptive” terms not just in red (an important concept), but in purple (strategic, preferred) to remind us that adaptive strategy (or more precisely, executing adaptive strategy, Skills 5 and 4), allows us to achieve both environmentally successful and preferred futures. By definition, such futures are at the heart of good leadership.
Before we delve further into Eight Skills, let’s look briefly at a two other management models with similar numbers of categories, to see how our model compares. Every evidence- or theory-based management model has some useful insights to offer, and I recommend study of these two and other management models. Yet it is also important, in studying models, to seek out the most grounded and universal ones we can find.
One model in popular use is Henry Mintzberg’s Ten Roles of Management. The figure at right outlines Mintzberg’s Ten Roles. Below is my assignment of his Ten Management Roles to the Eight Skills, based on his descriptions in Mintzberg on Management (1989).
|Eight Skills||Mintzberg’s Ten Management Roles|
Spokesperson; Liaison; Figurehead
From my perspective, Mintzberg’s model offers useful distinctions on the relating skill, but it greatly downplays the anticipation skill. Anticipation is a central strength of forecasters, predictors, risk managers, investors, law and security personnel. His model also downplays the execution skill, a central strength of operations and project management staff, who are core to adaptive management. A variety of kinds of execution strengths are covered in Gallup’s StrengthFinder, as we have discussed.
Another model with a following is Meredith Belbin’s Nine Team Roles. The figure at right offers a good overview of Belbin’s roles as strengths and allowable weaknesses on teams. Belbin’s original descriptions can be found in Management Teams (1981), and Management Teams, 2nd Ed. (2004). Below is my assessment of his Nine Team Roles with respect to the Eight Skills.
|Eight Skills||Belbin’s Nine Team Roles|
|Resource investigator; Specialist
Monitor evaluator; Completer
Note how Belbin’s model offers not just one but two important team roles in each of the Learning, Execution, and Reviewing skills. It offers particular depth and discrimination in those areas. At the same time, the model presently overlooks the anticipation skill. Perhaps this is not surprising, as humanity seems to have a cognitive bias against anticipation as a conscious process, though we do it unconsciously all the time, as described in Why Think About the Future? in Chapter 1. Consciously, we tend to see the world as more chaotic and unpredictable than it actually is. Yet evo devo theory, the 95/5 rule, and predictable long-range change in physical and chemical sciences all remind us that while perhaps only 5% of natural processes may be easily predictable, those 5% seem equally important to the 95% that we can’t predict, as they constrain several features of the future of the system–in other words, they are developmental, not evolutionary. Forecasters, predictors, risk managers, investors, law and security personnel are all biased to prediction, and these folks need to be represented in any good team model. Observe also that Belbin’s model currently ignores the influence skill. This is a bit more surprising, as selling, wooing, convincing, marketing, and credibility building are all constantly being done on teams. Belbin added Specialist to his model after feedback. I hope he will add new roles in anticipation and influence categories as well in coming years.
In conclusion, both models offer several useful distinctions missing from the Eight Skills, yet neither is based on evo devo perception-decision-action cycles, as is the Do loop. It should not be surprising that each model also appears to be missing a few important elements as well, making it less in balance and adaptive than it would otherwise be. Let’s look now at each of the Eight Skills in turn, and discuss some ways they are used to generate foresight in organizations, and how foresight practitioners can use each skill with their clients. At the end of the chapter, we’ll also consider how the eight skills relate to leadership, for each of us as aspiring self-leaders and organizational leaders.